Russia Considers Complete Ban on Gasoline and Diesel Exports to Stabilize Domestic Market

Russian government agencies are currently considering a ban on gasoline and diesel exports until the end of the year as part of efforts to stabilize the domestic market. A source from the relevant ministries confirmed that discussions are ongoing regarding a complete ban on both fuel types until December 31.

As a reminder, a temporary ban on gasoline exports has been in effect since August 21. This ban is set to last until September 30 for all suppliers and until October 31 for companies that do not produce gasoline.

The decision comes in response to escalated attacks on oil refineries by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including recent drone strikes. Notably, the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan was targeted again today, following a previous attack on September 18.

These attacks, combined with increased seasonal demand and market speculation, have led to rising prices on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange. The wholesale price of AI-92 gasoline has reached 73.6 rubles per ton, while diesel fuel is priced at 72.2 rubles. In comparison, at the end of August, diesel fuel cost 60 rubles, and AI-92 gasoline was priced at 67 rubles.

Currently, the surplus of gasoline production over domestic consumption is estimated at 10-15%, while for diesel fuel, the surplus is double that amount. This situation particularly affects independent gas stations that purchase fuel from the exchange. In Crimea, the absence of major players like Rosneft or Lukoil complicates matters, as all gasoline is sold through small networks.

Independent experts believes that the issue at hand is more about localized disruptions rather than a nationwide shortage. They suggested that imposing a ban on diesel exports until the end of October could alleviate the shortages, particularly since most complaints about fuel shortages are coming from independent gas stations.

While a complete export ban could reduce revenues for oil companies and impact the budget, it may help avoid a deficit in the domestic market.