Brazil’s Supreme Court Convicts Bolsonaro of Conspiring to Overthrow Democracy

In a landmark ruling, Brazil’s Supreme Court has found former President Jair Bolsonaro guilty of plotting a military coup, a decision that could result in a lengthy prison sentence for the far-right populist. This conviction follows a majority vote among the court’s judges, with implications that reach deep into Brazil’s political landscape.

Justice Cármen Lúcia Antunes Rocha announced the verdict on Thursday, determining that Bolsonaro, a former paratrooper who served as president from 2018 until losing the 2022 election, sought to unlawfully retain power. Her vote was pivotal, as three of the five judges in the case concluded that Bolsonaro was guilty of leading a criminal conspiracy.

In her statement, Rocha condemned Bolsonaro’s actions as an effort to “sow the malignant seed of anti-democracy” in Brazil but praised the resilience of the country’s democratic institutions. “Brazilian democracy was not shaken,” she affirmed in the capital, Brasília, while cautioning against the rise of “the virus of authoritarianism.”

Two other judges, Alexandre de Moraes and Flávio Dino, also found the former president guilty, with Moraes describing him as the leader of a “criminal organization” that aimed to restore dictatorial rule in Brazil. He elaborated on the conspiracy, which he stated unfolded between July 2021 and January 2023, culminating in a violent uprising by Bolsonaro supporters in Brasília following the election of leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

A fourth judge, Luiz Fux, dissented, arguing there was “absolutely no proof” that Bolsonaro was aware of any alleged plot to assassinate Lula or that he attempted to stage a coup. While he condemned the January 8 uprising—when radical supporters vandalized key government buildings—Fux maintained that the evidence did not implicate Bolsonaro directly.

Fux did, however, vote to convict two of Bolsonaro’s close associates: former Defense Minister Gen. Walter Braga Netto and former aide Lt. Col. Mauro Cid. He determined that they had played significant roles in planning a violent attempt to overthrow democracy and had conspired to murder Moraes to incite chaos.

The final sentence for Bolsonaro is expected to be announced on Friday, following the vote of the remaining judge, Cristiano Zanin. Experts believe that the combined charges of orchestrating a coup and violently attempting to dismantle Brazil’s democracy could lead to a sentence of up to 43 years. Bolsonaro did not attend court proceedings this week, choosing to remain under house arrest in his nearby residence, where police are stationed to prevent him from seeking refuge in foreign embassies.

While progressive factions celebrate the downfall of a leader associated with environmental degradation, hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 deaths, and minority attacks, concerns linger about the ongoing influence of Bolsonaro’s political movement. Analysts warn that Fux’s challenges to the court’s jurisdiction may pave the way for legal disputes that could potentially annul the trial.

“I wouldn’t declare Jair Bolsonaro’s political death,” said Dr. Camila Rocha, a political scientist from the Brazilian Centre for Analysis and Planning. She anticipates that Bolsonaro’s supporters will continue to fight for his release, utilizing various strategies, including efforts to elect right-wing senators who could impeach justices perceived as adversaries and lobbying for international support from figures like Donald Trump.

In recent weeks, pro-Bolsonaro lawmakers have proposed amnesty for the former president and others involved in the coup attempt and the January 8 riots. They argue that such measures would help “pacify” Brazil’s politically divided landscape.