Trump’s Sanctions Gamble: Global Ramifications for Russia and International Trade

U.S. President Donald Trump has reiterated his intention to implement secondary sanctions against Russia should Moscow fail to engage constructively in resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Secondary sanctions, as outlined by the BBC, target not just Russia, but also third-party entities that maintain business relations with the country, effectively penalizing those who violate primary sanctions.

These sanctions could impact a wide array of businesses, particularly those providing electronics under U.S. Treasury export controls or components supporting the so-called “shadow fleet”—vessels that facilitate oil trade in defiance of existing embargoes.

A distinctive feature of American sanctions lies in their extraterritorial scope, allowing Washington to exert influence well beyond its borders. Non-U.S. companies engaging with sanctioned Russian entities risk severe repercussions, especially if they use U.S. financial systems, equipment, or infrastructure. Such interactions compel violators to engage with U.S. regulators to resolve sanctions-related claims, positioning secondary sanctions as a formidable lever of economic pressure. This framework is codified in the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), enacted in 2017, which mandates compliance with U.S. sanctions for non-U.S. individuals and entities.

According to legal analysts at Brace, as of mid-2024, 494 firms across 57 countries have faced secondary U.S. sanctions due to connections with Russia, primarily for violations related to electronics, industrial goods, and support in evading sanctions. While critics argue that the extraterritorial application of these sanctions contravenes international law, the U.S. continues to enforce them unimpeded.

The significance of secondary sanctions is growing within the U.S. strategy. In March 2025, the Treasury Department sanctioned 12 firms from India and China for allegedly supplying microchips to the Russian defense sector, an action that propelled Brent crude prices to $95 per barrel. In response, Russia has intensified its oil exports via its shadow fleet, with the International Energy Agency reporting that these vessels transported approximately 42 million barrels of oil to Asia during the first quarter of 2025.

Trump’s threats to expand sanctions to encompass all Russian oil exports could have far-reaching implications, not only for Moscow but also for its key trade partners, including India and China, potentially compelling them to reassess their economic ties with Russia.