Aliyev Cautions Against Overestimating Ceasefire Prospects in Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has cast doubt on the likelihood of rapidly achieving stability between Russia and Ukraine, asserting that even a temporary ceasefire does not preclude the possibility of renewed hostilities. In an interview with Euronews, Aliyev emphasized the importance of a realistic perspective, warning that sustainable peace may not be attainable in the near future—potentially not even in the coming years.

“If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine stops, this does not guarantee that it will not flare up again,” Aliyev stated, underscoring the necessity for more profound solutions to address the underlying issues of the conflict. He remarked that merely halting hostilities does not signify the resolution of the conflict itself, drawing on his own country’s experience with a nearly three-decade ceasefire with Armenia that began in 1994.

Aliyev’s comments come in the wake of recent diplomatic efforts, including consultations hosted by Saudi Arabia in early March involving representatives from the United States, Ukraine, and Russia to discuss the potential for a 30-day ceasefire. However, experts share Aliyev’s skepticism regarding the effectiveness of such measures. A report from The Washington Post indicated that without a formal peace treaty, the risk of escalation remains, particularly in light of Russia’s recent territorial gains in the Kursk region, where the Russian Defense Ministry claims over 1,100 square kilometers have been reclaimed.